India Record 2024-25 Kharif Rice Harvest; Punjab Milling Challenges
New Delhi, India – The Indian government has released its initial estimates for the 2024-25 Kharif season, predicting an all-time high food grain output of 1,647.05 lakh metric tonnes (LMT). This represents an increase of 89.37 LMT from the previous year and surpasses the five-year average by 124.59 LMT. Driven by substantial gains in rice production—expected to reach a record 1,199.34 LMT—these figures highlight India’s agricultural prowess. However, challenges loom for Punjab, a key contributor to the nation’s rice supply, as milling sector issues intensify.
The surge in production, primarily of rice, jowar, and maize, is expected to ease inflation pressures and increase food security, benefitting India’s Public Distribution System (PDS) and bolstering export potential. However, Punjab’s rice quality and milling efficiency face obstacles linked to Out-Turn Ratio (OTR) standards, sparking a review that could impact the state’s rice industry dynamics.
Record Rice Production Amid Supply Challenges in Punjab
The projected record production of 1,199.34 LMT of Kharif rice marks a significant 66.75 LMT increase from last year and an astounding 114.83 LMT above average, driven by favorable monsoon conditions and strong yield performance in key states. This historic output comes as harvesting is underway, with Punjab—India’s leading rice supplier for the PDS—grappling with issues in processing its ordinary rice varieties.
India’s substantial rice surplus already exceeds annual requirements for free rations distributed under the National Food Security Act. The surplus, while a boon for food security, also intensifies existing challenges in Punjab, where rice consumption patterns are shifting, with consumers increasingly preferring wheat. “Rice-eating states are rejecting ordinary Punjab rice due to changing dietary trends and increasing wheat demand,” an expert commented, highlighting the unique challenge of maintaining high demand for Punjab’s rice amidst evolving consumer preferences and regional self-sufficiency in paddy production.
The Out-Turn Ratio (OTR) Debate and IIT Kharagpur’s Involvement
A central issue for Punjab’s rice industry lies in the Out-Turn Ratio (OTR), which refers to the yield percentage that millers obtain after processing paddy into rice. The Centre mandates a standardized OTR across all states, regardless of rice variety, to ensure uniformity in national procurement. However, Punjab’s rice millers argue that their popular rice variety, PR-126, yields a lower OTR—4-5% below the national average—creating financial strains and inefficiencies in processing.
In response to Punjab’s concerns, the Centre has enlisted IIT Kharagpur to investigate and test OTR norms across major rice-producing states. This study will consider differences in rice yield potential and milling efficiency across varieties and regions. The findings from IIT Kharagpur’s upcoming review, scheduled from November 17 to 19 in Punjab, are expected to inform decisions on whether state-specific OTR adjustments are viable.
Ranjit Singh Jossan, vice president of the Punjab Rice Industry Association, emphasized the importance of the investigation, stating, “The Centre should utilize the test results to determine the acceptable percentage of rice and broken rice for millers, enabling the sector to navigate this critical challenge.” However, government officials maintain that any OTR revisions would be applied uniformly across India, meaning Punjab may need to await comprehensive results from all involved states before any policy changes are implemented.
PR-126: A High-Yield Rice Variety Facing Controversy
The variety at the heart of Punjab’s milling challenges, PR-126, has gained popularity due to its high yield potential, resilience, and efficiency in water usage. Developed by the Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), PR-126 has been promoted as an alternative to the traditional PUSA-44 variety, which requires significantly more water (5,000-6,000 liters per kilogram versus PR-126’s 4,000 liters).
PAU officials argue that genuine PR-126 seeds offer consistent yields and quality but point out that hybrid and spurious seeds—marketed under the PR-126 label by unauthorized sellers—have led to suboptimal results. “University seeds can be reprocessed, but other hybrid or spurious varieties cannot,” explained a PAU spokesperson, suggesting that non-certified seeds are largely responsible for the observed OTR variations.
Further, according to PAU’s 2022 data, PR-126 is now the most widely planted rice variety in Punjab, occupying 22% of the state’s rice-cultivated area. The variety has clear, translucent grains and is resistant to bacterial blight pathogens, with an average paddy yield of 30 quintals per acre. Despite these advantages, officials report that only 5-10% of Punjab’s farmers have adopted PR-126 in recent years. This limited adoption rate is attributed to challenges in ensuring the availability of certified seeds and lack of stringent government oversight over seed sales.
Jossan highlighted these concerns, calling for action against unregulated sellers marketing subpar seeds as PR-126. “More than 70% of seeds sold as PR-126 are unapproved variants,” he noted, pointing to the resulting increase in breakage during milling. To address these issues, he suggests bolstering oversight on seed sales and encouraging genuine seed adoption among farmers.
National Procurement Standards and the Rice Surplus Challenge
The government’s Food Corporation of India (FCI) procurement norms mandate that millers deliver at least 67 kg of rice per 100 kg of paddy, with 75% of this yield comprising full grains. Punjab’s millers have found it difficult to meet these standards with PR-126, intensifying their calls for state-specific OTR revisions.
As the Centre reviews national procurement policies, some experts argue that India’s rice surplus should prompt Punjab to diversify its agricultural output. “India already has a rice surplus, and the quality of Punjab’s rice is unpopular in rice-eating states,” an agricultural analyst noted. With changing consumption patterns and increasing wheat demand, experts suggest that Punjab could benefit from promoting alternative crops, such as maize and pulses, to reduce its dependency on rice.
Water conservation is an additional factor driving the case for diversified cropping in Punjab. PR-126, which requires less water than older varieties, aligns with ongoing efforts to address the state’s water scarcity. However, experts emphasize that reducing rice cultivation in favor of other crops could have even more significant environmental benefits.
Transitioning away from water-intensive rice cultivation could also improve Punjab’s soil health and sustainability, reducing reliance on pesticides and fertilizers. Proponents of crop diversification argue that alternative grains, like maize and pulses, offer both economic and ecological benefits, potentially fostering a more resilient agricultural sector in Punjab.
The forthcoming study by IIT Kharagpur could be a turning point for Punjab’s rice milling industry, providing clarity on OTR standards and potentially offering a pathway for more region-specific policies. However, any changes will depend on the findings from other rice-producing states and the Centre’s willingness to adapt procurement standards.
For Punjab’s millers and farmers, the results of the IIT study are critical. A balanced resolution that accommodates Punjab’s unique rice processing characteristics while maintaining national procurement goals could relieve the financial strain on millers. Additionally, addressing seed quality issues through stricter regulation could help restore confidence in high-yield varieties like PR-126.
Meanwhile, Punjab’s agricultural future may rest on its ability to evolve beyond rice. As the state navigates these challenges, its response to issues around water conservation, crop diversification, and milling standards will play a key role in shaping a more sustainable and economically viable agricultural sector.
The 2024-25 Kharif season projections signal a record-breaking year for Indian agriculture, with grain output bolstering food security. Yet, Punjab’s unique challenges reflect the complexities within India’s agricultural landscape. As the country balances national procurement goals with regional demands, sustainable crop diversification and localized solutions could help ensure that India’s agricultural growth is both prosperous and environmentally sustainable.
With Punjab’s rice sector under scrutiny and major policy decisions pending, the future of the state’s agricultural landscape hangs in the balance, awaiting a careful resolution to challenges that could shape India’s food security for years to come.
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